The Case for Gold
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PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS INFORMATION EXPRESSES THE VIEWS AND OPINIONS OF SEABRIDGE GOLD MANAGEMENT AND IS NOT INTENDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. SEABRIDGE GOLD IS NOT LICENSED AS AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Where is the Recovery?
Gold bears have been pounding gold on the short side because they think the US economy is in, or about to be in, a strong economic recovery which means the Fed will raise rates, the dollar will soar and gold will decline further.
US Consumers Head Towards Recession?
The Fed-touted economic acceleration of 2015 is fast becoming a tired joke. June retail sales actually fell from the May number that was supposed to reflect a rebound from a snowy winter.
Gold: It's Probably Not as Hopeless as It Looks
The US equity markets nearly broke hard to the downside yesterday but they were saved by another rumor of a deal to save Greece. The rumor will probably turn out to be false, like all the rest, and in any case there is a lot more going on than Greece. The point is that financial markets look increasingly unstable.
Is Greece a Real Financial Crisis? Inflationism and Terminal Debt
So far, the financial markets have decided that Greece is not a real crisis. That's because markets are focused on peripheral issues: will Greece leave the euro (maybe) and will there be political or bond market contagion in other euro zone members (probably)?
Another Stinker Jobs Report
The bulls will tell you that 233,000 jobs were created in the US economy in June. They will tell you that the economy has created a million new jobs this year so far and that the unemployment rate has fallen to 5.3%. These are the government's facts but they are facts that paint a very misleading picture of the US economy.
Further Evidence of a US Recession?
This morning, we got the Chicago ISM data for June. The index covers all sectors of the Chicago economy and it remained 'surprisingly' depressed at 49.4, well below consensus estimates and the fourth month of contraction (sub-50) in the last five months (see chart below). Where is the bounce back the Fed expected from the bad winter weather?
With Europe in Crisis, Why is Gold Down?
Gold bulls expect that as a crisis emerges, gold will respond immediately. Usually it does not. Why?
Why US Job Reports Make No Sense
For more than a year, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been saying that we are in the middle of the best jobs market in decades. Never mind that the percentage of working age people with jobs has been falling month after month while the Establishment Survey showed cumulative job gains by the millions. Never mind that, as the jobs market was purportedly streaking ahead, incomes and spending inexplicably were not. The Fed saw what it wanted to see in the Jobs data and declared that slack in the labor market was lessening...proof positive of economic recovery.
Has the US dollar topped?
As a number of analysts have noted, gold and the dollar have an asymmetrical relationship. Gold tends to do well when the dollar is falling against other currencies and it tends to be suppressed somewhat less by a rising dollar. This year, the dollar has made new highs in the move that started last July but gold has not made new lows.
An Earnings Recession Coming Up
In our view, you cannot know much about the future of the gold price by studying the gold price. This is a contrary view to many, who continue to pore over charts of the gold price for hints as to its future. Jewelry demand, mine production, central bank purchases and sales are also completely useless, in our view.