The Case for Gold
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PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS INFORMATION EXPRESSES THE VIEWS AND OPINIONS OF SEABRIDGE GOLD MANAGEMENT AND IS NOT INTENDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. SEABRIDGE GOLD IS NOT LICENSED AS AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
The Big Picture for Gold
This is a very frustrating period for gold investors. Global financial and geopolitical risks appear to be very high but gold has not responded. Gold and gold stocks are range-trading and have been since early March of this year. Gold is in a roughly $150 range (about 15%) while the HUI, a gold stock index, is in a 60 point range (about 30%).
Facts vs. Fantasy: Can Trump Meet the Market's Expectations?
Sorry to bring some real economic facts into the Trump economic boom fantasy but it is very unlikely that the market gets what it imagines. Here’s why.
More on Interest Rates and Gold
The price of gold dropped about $15 within a minute of the release of the October nonfarm payroll report data last Friday, based on speculation that the Fed would begin to raise rates next month. That's life in a centrally planned economy, where the most important price of all-the price of money-is fixed by the central bank.
Popping the Bubble
Our thesis is that the stock and bond markets are in a massive bubble, that the bubble will pop and gold and gold stocks will soar as they have in the aftermath of previous bubbles.
Follow the Money
Why the stock market's been up and why it likely won't last
Gold Bull Market? Maybe Not Quite Yet
Many commentators now say that gold has entered a new bull market. Has it? It's easy to argue both sides of this question. Gold has performed well recently and it is trading nicely above its 50 and 200 day moving averages, volume has been good and the speculators are getting long. All things you would like to see in a new bull market.
Return to First Principles: Reaction to Extraordinary Developments
The past several weeks, we have been treated to some of the most extraordinary developments we have seen in financial markets in many years. Gold has not yet expressed its response but, in our opinion, the stage has now been set for reinstatement of gold as a preferred investment in the months ahead.
How the Bubble Was Created
In our previous two posts, we explained why we think stocks are in a bubble and what a bubble means for gold. In fact, we believe all financial assets are in a bubble created by Fed policy, especially QE.
Are US Equities in a Bubble?
As we have noted, there is a very important difference between a bull market and a bubble. Valuations are certainly one means of distinguishing them. In retrospect, we can recognize previous historic bubbles such as 1929 and 2000. When basic ratios such as Price-to-Sales and Tobins’ Q have reached the levels that marked these bubbles, as they have, we can make a reaonable inference that another bubble has formed.
The Bubble Continues
We thought that when the gold price broke above its five year downtrend in early June, it would establish an upward trend. We were wrong. Another false start, it seems. The bubble in financial assets continues.