The Case for Gold
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PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS INFORMATION EXPRESSES THE VIEWS AND OPINIONS OF SEABRIDGE GOLD MANAGEMENT AND IS NOT INTENDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. SEABRIDGE GOLD IS NOT LICENSED AS AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
US GDP Shocker Another Blow to Fed Credibility
The Federal Reserve wants you to believe that the US economy is strong enough for it to normalize its interest rate policy. And the stock market wants to believe that it has tripled since the bottom in March, 2009 because the US economy is strengthening and will soon achieve 'escape velocity'.
Gold Investors Watching Bank Stocks
A healthy financial system is generally not a positive for gold. Rising investor confidence in banks typically runs in parallel with greater risk tolerance and less interest in gold, which is the preferred home for the risk averse.
Fed Credibility at Risk as the Economic Illusion Begins to Vaporize
As we have frequently stated, the current state of financial markets — including a gross over-valuation of financial assets and an unsustainable debt load — is deeply dependent on the belief that the Federal Reserve knows what it is doing and is able to stimulate economic growth.
Gold on the Brink of a Breakout?
There is now a lot of data to suggest that the gold rally we have called for is now close at hand. The supporting data is of three kinds: the structure of the gold market; the reaction of markets to the Fed rate hike last week and the performance of the US economy.
COT Update: the Shorts Bring Lots of Rocket Fuel to a Nascent Gold Rally
As discussed previously on these pages, the COMEX Commitments of Traders (COT) report published weekly by the CME is one of the best indicators for the western speculative sentiment that tends to drive gold prices in the short term. The report for the week ending Tuesday, December 1, 2015 made a very bullish situation even more so.
Trader Positioning Signals Potential Rally in Gold
As discussed previously on these pages, the COMEX Commitments of Traders (COT) report published weekly by the CME is one of the best indicators for the western speculative sentiment that tends to drive gold prices in the short term. The report for the week ending Tuesday, November 24, 2015 is among the most bullish ever.
Sentiment Indicators Support End to Gold Correction
As discussed previously on these pages, the COMEX Commitments of Traders (COTs) published weekly by the CME is one of the best indicators for the western speculative sentiment that tends to drive gold prices in the short term.
Fed Fears Bring Down Gold
Like everyone else, we were surprised by the relative strength of the October US jobs report released last Friday. None of the employment sub-indices in other recent economic reports hinted at a better number. The market response was swift: surely the Fed will raise rates in December, so the dollar went up, commodities fell and the gold price took another hit. We had predicted a gold price correction two weeks ago but yesterday's drop made for a deeper correction than we had expected.
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Gold: to Correct or Not to Correct?
Gold has had a nice move from the lows of late July. Will it continue or correct? We are firmly of two minds on this issue but if we had to decide, we would say that a correction is probably more likely.
The Fed is Wrong (Again): America is Slowing Down (Fast?)
Our consistent view has been that the US economy is not in a recovery, that the Fed will not be able to increase short term rates and that Fed credibility would suffer, opening the way for a lower dollar, a higher gold price and a deep correction in the stock market. Let's look at some new evidence.