Further Evidence of a US Recession?

Further Evidence of a US Recession?  

This morning, we got the Chicago ISM data for June. The index covers all sectors of the Chicago economy and it remained 'surprisingly' depressed at 49.4, well below consensus estimates and the fourth month of contraction (sub-50) in the last five months (see chart below). Where is the bounce back the Fed expected from the bad winter weather?

We continue to think that the US economy is not on the verge of a strong second half recovery. In our view, the trend is down towards recession. What are the consequences? First, proof that QE and ZIRP do not help the economy. Second, no more than one Fed rate hike (if that), not the normalization of monetary policy the market expects. Third, calls for more stimulus. In short, loss of confidence in the Fed, the economy and the stock market. This is the development we see as critical to a breakout in the gold price. A rendezvous with the truth is now probably only a few months away.

Does this look like a recovery to you? US Industrial Production actually peaked in July, 2014 and has been heading straight down since then.